“Perhaps the deepest problem is the problem of conjecture in foreign policy.  Each political leader has the choice between making the assessment which requires the least effort or making an assessment which requires more effort.  If he makes the assessment that requires the least effort, then as time goes on it may turn out that he was wrong.  And then he will have to pay a heavy price.  If he acts on the basis of a guess, he will never be able to prove that his effort was necessary.  But he may save himself a great deal of grief later on.  If he acts early, he cannot know whether it was necessary.  If he waits, he may be lucky or he may be unlucky.  It is a terrible dilemma.” — Henry Kissinger 1963

The above quote surmises the ever-present dilemma any leader faces when making choices (or not). We grant too much agency to our leaders and neglect the role luck plays in their leadership outcomes.